Since the Verizon LTE information page hasn’t offered any new information in ages, we’re going to try to move the needle a bit by starting a guessing game over which cities will be included in the list of “25 to 30″ markets that are still supposed to see live Long Term Evolution services from Big Red before the end of calendar 2010.
Remember, this is only a game, for fun! No wagering!
Since Verizon is claiming that it will offer LTE services to “approximately 100 million people” in the U.S. by the end of the year, it becomes a bit of a math game to figure out how you get to 100 million covered while launching at best 30 markets. All you need for this game are some accurate-enough U.S. census figures, and you can start to build a list of the big cities Verizon is gonna need to hit that 100 million mark. (Note: all numbers are approximate, but close enough for the purpose of this exercise.)
What you find out is that unless Verizon includes all the big major metro areas — like New York and its 19 million residents, LA and its 12.9 million Angelenos and the 9.5 million Chicagoans — it’s going to be almost impossible to hit the 100 million mark with just 30 markets, so into the hopper they go. Since we are not Verizon market experts but are guessing some readers of this blog are, we’re stopping our list halfway through, since with our 15 we’re already at a total of 87 million, close enough so that Verizon can get to 30 markets by adding a bunch of smaller locales.
What about service plans, prices and devices? All good stuff that we’re guessing we’ll hear LaTEr in the year from Verizon. Let’s check back then to see how close we were with these guesses, which include the big markets for math and then a bunch of East Coast markets to reflect Verizon’s Bell Atlantic heritage:
SIDECUT FIRST GUESS AT VERIZON 2010 LTE MARKET LAUNCH LIST:
(Metro area, approximate total population in millions of potential LTE customers)
1. New York (19.0 million)
2. Los Angeles (12.9)
3. Chicago (9.5)
4. Dallas/Fort Worth (6.3)
5. Philadelphia (5.8)
6. Washington D.C. (5.3)
7. Boston (4.5)
8. Detroit (4.4)
9. San Francisco/Bay Area (4.2)
10. Phoenix (4.2)
11. Seattle (3.3)
12. Baltimore (2.6)
13. Denver (2.5)
14. Providence, R.I. (1.5)
15. Hartford, Conn. (1.2)
Total: Approximately 87.2 million population covered. Add your guesses, corrections or other observations in the comments!