Sidecut Reports

After a week of all 3G iPhone all the time, it’s pretty clear that the performance hurdle is being set for the “new” Clearwire and its planned nationwide WiMax network: Devices will need to look and perform reasonably like an iPhone, at as-fast or faster speeds, for lower prices, to get any traction at all. Luckily for Clearwire and its partners, those barriers aren’t insurmountable, but there’s also not a lot of time or chances to get things right. As we say in our most recent revision of our WiMax report, it’s still Game On, WiMax. But Clearwire better hurry, before Apple and AT&T run the table.

On the device look-and-feel front, it seems like Clearwire should be safe — WiMax partner Samsung is already showing a touchscreen iPhoneClone, and Google’s Android interface looks sufficiently iPhone-enough to compete, should it arrive as scheduled. On the speeds front, Clearwire should be able to make the 3G iPhone look pokey, if the company actually delivers its promised speeds of between 2 and 6 Mbps on the download side. Since Clearwire claims in its official merger filing with the FCC that its networks will support mobile two-way video, it appears that the folks on the networking side are pretty confident. That leaves us with pricing plans as the place where Clearwire might stumble in its bid to unseat the iPhone.

With an upfront cost of $199 and monthly plans of $60-70 for voice and data, the 3G iPhone isn’t cheap, so Clearwire seems to have some breathing room, especially since Clearwire service plans are likely to include a bundle of home and mobile Internet service for the same customer. But since Clearwire doesn’t plan to subsidize device costs, it will have to do a lot of marketing to convince customers that it may be cheaper in the long run to buy a more-expensive device and pay less per month; it will then have to turn around and sell an opposite story to Wall Street, claiming it can make more in revenues by signing more customers to cheaper contracts, including those for ad hoc or daily use.

Hmmm.

Clearwire may get an additional break or boost if AT&T and Apple run into network congestion problems following the July 11 availability date for the 3G iPhone. (Wonder if we can get odds on the downtime next week at NXTcomm in Vegas?) Ideally, Clearwire would start some limited public tests as soon as possible to give users a taste of what a 4G device could look and feel like. Until then, all we’re likely to hear is how much the fanboys love their 3G iPhones. The louder that chorus gets, the harder it will be for Clearwire’s song to be heard.

Need to know more about WiMax? Order our recently updated WiMax report, with full analysis of the “new” Clearwire deal and the motivations for investors Comcast, Google, Intel and others.

Some of the same thoughts had been forming in my head lately, but pal Andy Abramson puts it all out in makes-sense order, seeing a WiMax-enabled offering from Apple in the near future, perhaps as soon as next month’s Apple developers’ conference.

Seeing rumors floating around about an Apple tablet also makes me think of WiMax, since such a device would be perfect for a Kindle-like iTunes experience — bundling in the cost of connectivity would appeal to the simplicity of Apple consumer gear, and such contracts were talked about repeatedly in research we did for our initial WiMax report. All of this is guessing, but wouldn’t it make sense to use the higher speeds of WiMax to power an instant-on iTunes video experience?

Two factors (one which Andy mentions also) seem to point to more WiMax inside Apple: The increasingly close relationship between Apple and Intel, the latter of which wants to push WiMax everywhere and is talking loudly about “mobile Internet devices,” of which there is really only one right now — the Apple iPhone. Second is the Google connection, as in Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who sits on Apple’s board. Since his company just poured a half-billion into the Clearwire WiMax deal, Schmidt would no doubt be in favor of getting Apple to help popularize the technology.

If you want more background on why WiMax makes sense for mobile platforms, order our inaugural WiMax report, which covers all the technology basics. We are in the process of adding our analysis of the recent Clearwire deal, and promise to ship the revised version before Apple’s conference starts.
Anyone who orders now will get both versions for the same price.

Looks like the rumor of WiMAX in the new Macbook Air was a huge whiff, but when you read about all the specs of Apple’s new lightweight laptop, who really cares? I mean, who doesn’t want one, right now?

Since we are looking for a laptop upgrade here at Sidecut Reports, there may be no better time to switch to the Mac platform. I’m sure we’ll be able to add a WiMAX card in later, if and when such services become available.

Man, just when you thought you could take a break again here come the nice words of praise from Mr. VoIP himself, Andy Abramson. Sure, go ahead and point people to the new site when there’s nothing happening there! Nothing like a friendly kick in the pants to get ya blogging again.

If you’ve poked around here a bit you are probably getting the idea that Sidecut Reports will eventually be something more than blog posts about scoring sweet parking at the Palazzo to avoid the CES crowds (FYI, the parking worked Tuesday and Wednesday as well). You can stay tuned by subscribing to the RSS feed here, or you can shoot me an email to sidecutreports at gmail dot com and I will personally alert you to any major annoucements/news/sports predictions. (Still working on getting an email subscription list together; like the Palazzo, there are still guys wandering around Sidecut HQ with cordless drills but the doors are open so c’mon in.)

On the casual blogging front, I am interested to see what really happens this week at MacWorld; I find this report of a WiMAX-enabled MacBook hard to swallow, especially since Intel isn’t even promising WiMAX PC cards or chips until mid-summer at best. A better guess might be 3G inside, as others have suggested. Can’t wait to hear.

As Andy noted, I will also be continuing to pinch-hit in the GigaOM lineup for the near future, concentrating on matters telecom and policy so feel free to keep me updated about any news, announcements or rumors in that arena to that email address, sidecutreports (all one word) at gmail dot com.