Sidecut Reports

There was no shortage of headlines after the historic May 7 announcement of the joint venture and $3.2 billion in funding that formed the “new” Clearwire, and its plans for a nationwide WiMax network. But in the course of putting together our comprehensive research report on the topic, we uncovered several interesting factors you may not have heard about, in regards to both the big new investors — Google, Comcast, Intel and Time Warner Cable — as well as Clearwire’s top competitors, AT&T and Verizon.

In no particular order of importance, here’s our list:

1) The new Clearwire network will use the “mobile” version of WiMax.
There seems to be a lot of confusion around this point, mainly because the “old” Clearwire had been using a so-called “fixed” version of the wireless broadband technology in the networks it’s been building since 2004. The new networks (including those inherited from Sprint’s Xohm operations) will use equipment based on the newer, mobile standard, which supports cellular-like roaming. Clearwire had previously said it was upgrading its networks to Mobile WiMax anyway, so this is not a big change. But when the mobile gear goes live, it will offer a much different experience than previous WiMax deployments.

2) Despite its stated strategic direction toward the long-term evolution (LTE) 4G cellular technology, AT&T currently runs several commercial WiMax networks in the U.S., in Nevada, Alaska and other locations.
Right now there doesn’t seem to be too much to look into here, except for the fact that AT&T may be hedging its bets by keeping its toes wet in matters WiMax. This may be more important in the future, when WiMax standards at the 700 MHz level emerge.

3) There is more bandwidth currently available at WiMax’s main frequency than at the much-heralded 700 MHz band.
This point is a hard one to make, since most people talk about the characteristics of specific spectrum slices, like the ability of 700 MHz signals to penetrate building walls. But when it comes to being able to offer more bandwidth to more folks, the amount of available spectrum may matter more — and right now, there is about 198 MHz available at WiMax’s 2.5 GHz band, as opposed to 60 MHz that is being freed up at 700 MHz. So WiMax may be better able to scale to support more users.

4) WiMax mobile devices are already under development, and should be ready about the same time the Clearwire network launches.
There’s a bit of a trust factor involved here, but we are going on the research we did with Sprint, who said that they had more devices in their labs for testing than they had time to certify. And the debut of Nokia’s WiMax tablet at CTIA in April seems to show that device manufacturers are ahead of the curve here.

5) The new Clearwire will offer day-pass and casual-use billing, which is a departure from the past long-term contracts.
Because Clearwire doesn’t have to subsidize the costs of all the expected WiMax-enabled devices, it can offer ad hoc contracts without the worry or expense of paying for end-user equipment. While it may take a while for Wall Street to wrap its mind around “occasional ARPU,” the incremental adds should bolster, not detract from, a provider’s bottom line.

Whatever the reasons behind it, Sprint’s decision to offer exactly zero hard infomation about its Xohm WiMax launch at CTIA was one of the biggest losing hands in Vegas this week. Not only did the company’s strange silent stance produce confusion and grumbling in partners’ booths, it has lit a WiMax-failed-hype meme that won’t do Sprint any marketing favors when it tries to launch the new wireless network later this year.

While I’m not as pessimistic as some (like Stacy over at GigaOM) about WiMax’s eventual place in the broadband-services world, there wasn’t a lot of confidence instilled by Sprint’s unwillingness to commit to any specifics about a service that the company still claims to be on track for a Q2 launch in Chicago, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. (UPDATE: According to other reports, Sprint is now saying the launch will be “later this year.” Just more confusion showing how muddled the message was this week.)

The CTIA event was a perfect platform for Sprint to spread the word — hundreds of telecom-centric scribes filled the press room, snarfing down stinky barbecue sandwiches while waiting, perhaps hoping to write about something other than another iPhone clone.

But instead of tackling the rumors head on — or at least addressing the fiscal problems that make stories about the need for a WiMax white knight sound credible — Sprint CEO Dan Hesse whiffed during his keynote, talking only about how great WiMax is before sprinting to a meeting room, with no press Q&A and nothing more than a “coming soon” slide to serve as the big Xohm news of the day. Poor Xohm President Barry West then had to spend the better part of Tuesday and Wednesday fending off increasingly aggressive questions about launch dates, investments and partnerships. A Tuesday evening Xohm press reception got off to a chilly start when West ended his welcoming remarks with a bit of a snarly warning about not asking questions he couldn’t answer.

(So of course we waited all of 10 seconds to ask him when the partnership would be announced. Graciously, West did continue to answer questions he could answer, such as one about what was causing the biggest delays — “Backhaul,” West said, claiming it was hard to find enough tech types with microwave experience to quickly set up tower sites.)

After WiMax took a few lumps from Vodaphone CEO Arun Sarin — who said during his Wednesday keynote that LTE should be the unifying 4G standard — West came out swinging during an afternoon Xohm update, saying he agreed there should be one 4G wireless standard — “but why bother with a standard [LTE] that isn’t finished? Let’s go with WiMax,” he said, gettting a laugh from the audience.

Then responding to a question about whether or not Sprint had the resources to go it alone on Xohm, West said: “Is [Sprint] healthy enough? Yeah, you bet it is.”

But if that is true, then why didn’t Hesse say that up front? Even if there are some advanced negotiations that prompted the impromptu news freeze, a bold bluff couldn’t hurt any more than the confusing appearance of lots of Xohm sizzle (snappy black outfits, a sizeable show-floor booth, lots of branding, some TV ad previews) without any steak to back it all up. Attendees from Xohm hardware partners and even some black-clad Xohm workerbees grumbled or shook their heads, wondering why there was no big announcement to match the buildup.

Maybe we’ll hear more soon, maybe not. But for WiMax backers, there weren’t a lot of smiles in Vegas this week, despite new products like Nokia’s WiMax tablet. In a briefing Wednesday with Motorola senior vice president Fred Wright (one of the leaders of Moto’s WiMax ship), Wright told us there was a “lot of momentum” behind Sprint and Clearwire, but later in the interview some frustration surfaced.

“Clearly, [Xohm] is very important to us,” Wright said. “But it isn’t going to make or break our WiMax business.”

Ouch!

It doesn’t count as a full review, but I did take the Nokia WiMax tablet out for a short test drive on the CTIA show floor Tuesday — and I can attest that the thing does work, the screen looks nice, and if your thumbs are fat like mine you might not like the keyboard, since it is set a bit close to the bottom of the screen.

Still no word from the Sprint folks on when the Xohm WiMax network will go live, or what pricing plans would be. (Barry West, the company’s WiMax tech lead, said “don’t even ask that question” at a press reception Tuesday evening.)

But Hey, Look! Sidecut Reports via WiMax to the Nokia Handset!

LAS VEGAS — Just got out of the Dan Hesse keynote here at CTIA, and all Sprint would say about its Xohm WiMax network is that it is “coming soon.” No comments on last week’s rumors of an investment from Comcast, and no Q&A with Hesse, who was whisked into a meeting room directly after his talk.

Sources here on the floor at the Las Vegas Convention Center still think some kind of deal is in the works, however. According to one source, Clearwire exec Gerry Salemme was doing the conference-room dance, so maybe we’ll hear something that isn’t a joke.

More later, including a look at the Nokia WiMax tablet.

With yet another “people familiar with the talks” sourcing, the Wall Street Journal is nevertheless reporting that Comcast and Time Warner Cable are now the latest sugar daddies lining up to save WiMax from the not-so-successful clutches of Sprint and Clearwire.

We’ll skip most of the details because we have heard such reports from this same reputable outlet before, and they haven’t materialized. Past rumored bacon-savers Intel and Google reappear here, though in this report Comcast is purportedly the leading funder, to the tune of $1 billion. Google, which seems more interested lately in talking about wireless networks instead of actually spending money on them, is reported to be in with a few hundred million.

We’ll believe all this when we see it, which may indeed happen next week in Vegas where Sprint CEO Dan Hesse is scheduled to give a keynote at the CTIA wireless show. Stay tuned!

(Even though he probably shouldn’t be up late at night blogging, Om nevertheless put together a nice compilation of WiMax posts here.)